Read on for an in-depth look at this week’s evolving stories, from tariff disputes and volatile price pressures to the future of savings incentives and a record-breaking UK bond sale. Uncover how these developments may not only shape the immediate financial landscape but also hint at the strategies investors and policymakers may adopt in the months ahead.
Global Economy
Trump Tariffs on Steel & Aluminium
- The US administration’s decision to impose a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminium, which will take effect on March 12, has ignited a fierce debate on trade policy.
- European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have both warned of firm and proportionate countermeasures, with Trudeau emphasising support for domestic workers and industries amid fears that such tariffs could spike costs for companies dependent on these imports.
- The move comes as President Trump claims the tariffs will “make America rich again” by bolstering domestic production, despite historical precedents in 2018 when negotiations led to numerous exemptions for allies like Canada and the EU.
- Industry data according to Reuters highlights the stakes: Canada supplied more than 50% of the aluminium imported into the US last year, and major US steelmakers have already seen significant market reactions—Cleveland-Cliffs’ share price jumped nearly 20% in anticipation of the measures
- As markets weigh whether this is a genuine policy shift or a tactical manoeuvre, concerns persist that higher input costs could eventually be passed on to consumers, complicating an already delicate international trade balance.
- "Tariffs are taxes – bad for business, worse for consumers," said Ursula von der Leyen.
US Inflation & Fed’s Cautious Stance
- The latest consumer price index report for January revealed inflation at 3%, exceeding economists’ forecasts of 2.9% and sparking renewed debates over the pace of price rises in the world’s largest economy.
- A notable monthly increase of 0.5%—compared to the anticipated 0.3%—was largely driven by a dramatic 15.2% surge in egg prices, which soared 53% year-over-year amid supply disruptions closely related to avian flu.
- In response, Fed Chair Jay Powell reassured lawmakers that despite the higher-than-expected numbers, “we’ve made great progress, but we’re not quite there yet”.
- Investors seem to have begun recalibrating their expectations, with futures markets hinting at a delayed first rate cut as persistent inflationary pressures create uncertainty in both stocks and government bonds.
- Powell explained that yesterday's “data reinforces our commitment to a measured approach—balancing progress with the need to stay vigilant," emphasising their increasingly cautious approach.
UK Economy
ISA Shake-Up: A Push Towards Investment?
- In the UK, fresh reports indicate that Chancellor Rachel Reeves is considering changes to cash ISA allowances—potentially cutting or even scrapping them—to encourage savers to explore other investments.
- The proposal is driven by concerns that too few savers are benefiting from investing, despite cash ISAs offering tax-free interest that can compound significantly over time. Last year alone, record deposits in cash ISAs topped £49.8bn, according to the Bank of England.
- Critics caution that for many savers, especially those in need of readily accessible funds for emergencies or near-term expenses, cash ISAs remain an essential tool that should not be touched.
- Finder’s data underscores the challenge: only about 6% of UK adults currently hold a stocks and shares ISA, reflecting a broader cultural reluctance to embrace market volatility in favour of the perceived security of cash ISAs.
- "Cash may look attractive, but shares have a better long-term record when it comes to outpacing inflation," observes James Norton of Vanguard, underscoring the tension between short-term safety and long-term growth potential.
- An abrupt abolition of cash ISAs would likely prove highly disruptive for many savers and probably isn’t advisable in the short term. However, over the longer term, nudging individuals toward higher-growth investments—such as stocks, venture capital, and other dynamic asset classes—could yield superior returns and more tax-efficient portfolios. This strategic shift would not only enhance personal wealth but also bolster the economy by channelling capital into equity markets and providing essential support for startups.
- To help in navigating this nuanced and sometimes confusing investment environment, we’ve put together a comprehensive guide on both tax-efficient investing and venture capital should you look to take a portion of your investments down this route.
Record UK Gilt sale
- In a stunning display of investor confidence, the UK government successfully sold a record £13 billion in 10-year bonds, attracting more than £140 billion in orders—a clear signal of robust demand for fixed-income assets amid ongoing economic uncertainty.
- This landmark sale, which surpassed previous gilt demand records set just weeks ago, comes as yields reach levels not seen since 2008: recent figures peaked near 5% before easing to approximately 4.48% as of the latest London reports.
- The surge in orders reflects a recalibration of investor sentiment as market participants, buoyed by evolving Bank of England policies and alleviating debt sustainability concerns, increasingly view bonds as a stable investment option.
- Analysts, including Evelyne Gomez-Liechti from Mizuho International and RBC’s Megum Muhic, suggest that "This transaction indicates a peak in gilt supply for the quarter, reflecting a notable shift in investor sentiment towards stability in turbulent times," noted Muhic.
Final Note
This week’s developments have further highlighted the ongoing tension between economic intervention and market forces, with policymakers and investors alike navigating an increasingly complex landscape.
From trade disputes and inflationary pressures to shifts in savings behaviour and record-breaking bond sales, each event underscores the delicate balance required to sustain stability while fostering long-term growth.
Whether it's the latest on Trump's tariffs or crucial information regarding investments, we’ll ensure you have the context and analysis required to navigate this ever-changing economic landscape.