Weekly Briefing: UK Professional Services Insight, Broadband Boost, Venture Capital Growth & German Auto Industry Struggles
This week, we take a closer look at key developments in the UK economy, highlighting above-average growth in the professional services sector and a promising future with the expansion of ultrafast broadband. We also explore movements in the UK venture capital space, with health tech, robotics, and fintech driving investment.
On the flip side, Germany’s automotive industry is facing significant challenges, from plant closures to production cuts, reflecting broader economic issues. The shift away from reliance on outdated trade models has left many questioning the future stability of Europe’s industrial base.
UK Economy
Professional Services Drive UK Growth Through 2024
- The UK’s professional services sector, which includes law, architecture, and R&D, played a pivotal role in driving economic growth in Q3, expanding by 0.7% quarter on quarter, according to data from the ONS.
- This sector outpaced the broader UK economy, growing 3.9% compared to the previous quarter, marking a stark contrast to the overall 1.3% growth seen in the country over the same period.
- Much of this growth is attributed to legal services, where the strength of English law and international talent continue to attract global clients, as well as R&D, which is fueling technological innovation across various industries.
- Although consumer demand remained weak in early 2024, business-to-business services have seen an uptick, with many firms investing in innovation and research to stay competitive.
- The resilience of the legal and R&D sectors, particularly in exports, has helped insulate the UK from global economic volatility, positioning these services as critical to the country’s economic strategy.
- “Professional services have been the locomotive of UK growth this year,” remarked Robert Wood, economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, underscoring the sector’s critical role in the economy.
Ultrafast Full-Fibre Broadband to Boost UK Economy
- According to a report, BT Group’s expansion of ultrafast broadband across the UK is expected to generate an impressive £66 billion in economic benefits by 2029, creating far-reaching impacts on productivity and public services.
- The rollout of full-fibre broadband will enhance remote working capabilities, with potential annual productivity gains of £19 billion, thanks to improved access to digital services across the nation.
- Additionally, access to full-fibre broadband is projected to increase property values by £1,900 on average, as homes with faster internet access become more desirable.
- The healthcare sector is expected to benefit significantly from this digital infrastructure, with an estimated five million online GP appointments per year by 2029, reliable internet connections are paramount for improving healthcare access and efficiency.
- Over 16 million UK homes already have access to ultrafast broadband, and with plans to extend this coverage to 30 million by 2030, the country is positioning itself as a leader in digital connectivity.
- “The rollout of full-fibre broadband is a growth and prosperity engine for the UK,” said Clive Selley, CEO of Openreach, emphasising the transformative potential of this nationwide digital infrastructure.
UK Venture Capital
UK VC Market Showing Signs of Recovery
- The UK venture capital market is bouncing back in 2024, with PitchBook reporting that deal sizes, valuations, and funding volumes have all surged in recent months.
- The third quarter alone saw notable investments in the tech sector, such as Flo’s £156 million Series C round and Amber Therapeutics’ £78 million Series A, signalling growing investor confidence in UK-based startups.
- Pre-money valuations for UK-based ventures have shown significant growth, especially at the pre-seed and venture growth stages, surpassing previous years' benchmarks and reflecting the increasing attractiveness of UK firms.
- Unlike many European countries, the UK has seen a 31% increase in median pre-seed valuations, indicating that British startups are commanding a premium in an increasingly competitive, global venture capital market.
- One potential driver is the easing of inflation and interest rates, which has created a more favourable investment climate, with health tech and robotics companies emerging as key areas for growth.
- “The UK remains a resilient and attractive destination for venture capital, setting the bar for other European markets,” noted PitchBook in their latest report.
Global Economy
Challenges for Germany’s Auto Industry Amid Economic Shifts
- Germany’s automotive sector, a key pillar of its economy accounting for 17% of exports, is facing significant headwinds as major players like Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen announce plant closures and layoffs in response to growing financial difficulties.
- The country’s reliance on cheap Russian gas and trade with China has proven unsustainable, as energy prices rise and geopolitical tensions disrupt established trade patterns, it's becoming harder for automakers to maintain profitability.
- Most notably, Mercedes-Benz saw a sharp 50% decline in profits year-on-year, with several other automakers scaling back production due to soaring energy costs and fast-shifting global demand.
- These struggles are not only affecting Germany’s economy but also reverberating across global supply chains, particularly in the U.S. market, where vehicle production and pricing may be impacted by reduced supply from German manufacturers.
- In response to these challenges, German automotive companies are increasingly directing investments toward the U.S., signalling a shift in global manufacturing and leaving some question marks over the future of Germany's industrial base.
- “Germany’s challenges are a cautionary tale for global economies reliant on industries built around outdated, globalised trade models,” said Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING.
Final Note
This week’s briefing covered some key economic trends both at home and in Europe.
The UK’s professional services sector has been a strong growth driver, while ultrafast broadband expansion promises significant productivity gains. Coupled with rising Venture capital activity, particularly in health tech, robotics and fintech, the UK’s economic outlook isn't all bad.
Meanwhile, Germany’s automotive sector struggles reflecting wider economic issues, highlighting some risks of outdated global trade models, and pressures that don't exist in solely our economy.